Ignore the emojis within the headline lengthy sufficient to ask your self this query: What would possibly the remainder of 2022 appear to be?
I did that train final week in response to a consumer inquiry concerning the second half of the 12 months. The context was extra money searching for long-term dwelling (not a commerce). The query was not a lot the place to place the capital, however relatively when to deploy it. They understood some great benefits of lump sum investing, and the psychological advantages of legging in over time; for this chunk of capital, they have been searching for an aggressive, well-timed entry level.
Some caveats: RWM does NOT handle billions of consumer {dollars} this manner; you do NOT wish to make investments “actual” cash based mostly on my or anyone else’s intestine as to when to leap into the deep finish of the pool. It solely works for somebody whose monetary plan is absolutely funded, the remainder of their home is so as, and they’re enjoying with a modest quantity of discretionary money.
Regardless, it’s an attention-grabbing query.
To reply it requires some creativeness as to potential paths the market can take from right here. It additionally requires some self-awareness (and a few chutzpah) about what it’s you suppose you understand that many of the market has but to determine. Throw in a few of Howard Marks‘ second-level pondering and you may cobble collectively a solution with a half-decent likelihood of success.
Let’s begin with how we received right here:
A large world pandemic led to a shutdown of the world’s financial system. Huge authorities response — most notably $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus from the U.S. — averted a catastrophic despair however supercharged the financial system. This was made worse by A) Shift from providers to items; B) Provide chain disruptions; C) Vaccine hesitancy. D) Federal Reserve staying at Zero for too lengthy.
Exacerbating issues was this failure to normalize charges in an inexpensive time interval after the pandemic restoration started. With the good thing about 20-20 hindsight, this possible would have tamped down a few of the worst inflation.
However all that stimulus had its impression: 2020 noticed markets acquire greater than 20% as they recovered from a 34% sell-off; 2021 was even higher, with markets up 28% and by no means falling greater than 5% from all-time highs your complete 12 months.
Then got here 2022, the annus horribilis of this younger decade. A few of this was absolutely imply reversion, nevertheless it was a number of issues additionally: Inflation reached 40-year highs; the Fed started aggressively elevating charges, and shopper sentiment hit new lows as recession fears elevated.
The market bought off almost 20% within the first quarter earlier than recovering to about down 5%; 2nd quarter noticed a 17% drop. There was no place to cover as bonds fell double digits within the first quarter (they recovered solely barely in Q2). It was the worst begin to a 12 months for Treasuries within the fashionable period. Crypto received demolished by 67%; Work-from-home shares have been punished; even FAANMG shares fell dramatically. For merchants, Vitality (Crude, Nat Fuel, Gasoline) was one of many few shiny spots together with a basket of commodities within the first half of the 12 months.
The lower in fairness markets is fascinating as a result of the current quarters of reported earnings have been at report highs1. This makes the drop over the primary half of the 12 months pushed not by a lower in earnings however by a compression of the PE a number of. To date it seems that firms have been capable of move alongside inflation-driven enter prices to customers.
This leaves us the place we’re at this time: Markets appeared to have priced in a light recession, and peak inflation behind us. I’m not sure if the markets have priced within the Fed overtightening, and I’m particularly involved about earnings softening somewhat this quarter (Q2 reporting began final week) and I’m not in any respect sanguine about what Q3 earnings will appear to be.
The positives are households have money, Company America’s stability sheets are nice, commodity costs have fallen onerous, and customers maintain spending. The negatives are sticky providers inflation, particularly Lease, elevated credit score utilization, low however rising delinquencies.
The massive wildcards: Will a behind-the-curve Fed overreact to inflation that’s already falling? How a lot will the brand new price regime impression Q3 earnings? Will the consensus gentle touchdown — a silky, horny gentle recession — morph into one thing a lot worse? Lastly, are weak Q3 earnings mirrored in inventory costs.
I believe FOMC going 75 bps on July 27-28 just about seals the deal for a recession.
Your entry level shall be decided by sentiment and the way markets are buying and selling at that second. When you missed final week as your second, then I’d be searching for a giant miss both this throughout quarters’ reporting season, or more likely, in Q3 after we discover out if the Fed’s overreaction did an excessive amount of harm.
YMMV
Beforehand:
Capitulation Playbook (Could 19, 2022)
Panic Promoting Quantified (March 24, 2022)
If You Promote Now, When Do You Get Again In? (March 23, 2022)
Don’t Panic! (with apologies to Douglas Adams) (March 9, 2020)
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1. BAML famous this morning: “Weakest begin since 1Q20, fewer beats than common Following Week 1, 35 S&P 500 firms (together with early reporters) comprising 10% of index earnings have reported. 2Q EPS ticked down by 30bp since July to $55.18 (vs. our $55.35). Simply 43% of firms beat on gross sales and EPS, weaker than the historic postweek 1 common of 47% and the weakest since 1Q20. We anticipate 2Q EPS to ‘meet’ at greatest with a flurry of downward revisions”
